Economic OutlookUntil 2020


GDP Growth Projections for FY 2018/19

Ministry of Finance

11%

World Bank

9%

IMF

8.5%

African Development Bank

7.8%

IMF Staff report FDRE, 2019

“Output growth is expected to accelerate to 8.5 percent in 2018/19 as political uncertainty abates and financial inflows temporarily ease external constraints. The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) continues to assess Ethiopia at high risk of debt distress. Reforms announced by the authorities—including privatizations and opening key sectors to competition and private investment—pose a substantial upside growth potential”

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Africa Development Outlook, Africa Development Bank (2017)


‘Real GDP growth is projected to recover from 7.7% in 2017/18 to 8.2% in 2018/19 and 2019/20, supported by industry and service sector expansion and agricultural sector recovery. Industrial growth will be boosted by ongoing industrial zone development, and agriculture will benefit from investments in fertilizer, irrigation, and improved seeds. Public investment will remain moderate, reflecting efforts to stabilize the public debt. The impending privatization of the state-owned railway, maritime, air transport, logistics, electricity, and telecommunications sectors is expected to boost private investment and mitigate the reduction in public spending’.

 

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Ethiopia Macroeconomic Handbook (2019) Cepheus Research and Analytics

Cepheus put together ten questions often raised by investors during discussions of the Ethiopian macroeconomy and venture to provide some answers that reflect its views and thinking on these issues. Cepheus also provide an Appendix with 10 years of macroeconomic data as well as our economic forecasts—covering the real, monetary, fiscal and external sectors—for 2019 and 2020.

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